Joining Forces of Bayesian and Frequentist Methodology: A Study for Inference in the Presence of Non-Identifiability

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take advantage of both Bayesian and frequentist methods. The elegance of Bayesian methodology is founded in the propagation of information content provided by experimental data and prior assumptions to the posterior probability distribution of model predictions. However, for complex applications experimental data and prior assumptions potentially constrain the posterior probability distribution insufficiently. In these situations Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling can be infeasible. From a frequentist point of view insufficient experimental data and prior assumptions can be interpreted as non-identifiability. The profile likelihood approach offers to detect and to resolve non-identifiability by experimental design iteratively. Therefore, it allows one to better constrain the posterior probability distribution until Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling can be used securely. Using an application from cell biology we compare both methods and show that a successive application of both methods facilitates a realistic assessment of uncertainty in model predictions.Comment: Article to appear in Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc.

Carbon and oxygen isotope composition of carbonates from an L6 chondrite: Evidence for terrestrial weathering from the Holbrook meteorite

Terrestrial weathering in meteorites is an important process which alters pristine elemental and isotopic abundances. The Holbrook L6 chondrite fell in 1912. Material was recovered at the time of the fall, in 1931, and 1968. The weathering processes operating on the freshly fallen meteorite in a semi-arid region of northeastern Arizona have been studied after a ground residence of 19 and 56 years. It has been shown that a large portion of the carbonate material in 7 Antarctic ordinary chondrites either underwent extensive isotopic exchange with atmospheric CO2, or formed recently in the Antarctic environment. In fact it has been demonstrated that hydrated Mg-carbonates, nesquehonite and hydromagnesite, formed in less than 40 years on LEW 85320. In order to help further constrain the effects of terrestrial weathering in meteorites, the carbon and oxygen isotopes extracted from carbonates of three different samples of Holbrook L6: a fresh sample at the time of the fall in 1912, a specimen collected in 1931, and a third specimen collected at the same site in 1968

ELVIS - ELectromagnetic Vector Information Sensor

The ELVIS instrument was recently proposed by the authors for the Indian Chandrayaan-1 mission to the Moon and is presently under consideration by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). The scientific objective of ELVIS is to explore the electromagnetic environment of the moon. ELVIS samples the full three-dimensional (3D) electric field vector, E(x,t), up to 18 MHz, with selective Nyqvist frequency bandwidths down to 5 kHz, and one component of the magnetic field vector, B(x,t), from a few Hz up to 100 kHz.As a transient detector, ELVIS is capable of detecting pulses with a minimum pulse width of 5 ns. The instrument comprises three orthogonal electric dipole antennas, one magnetic search coil antenna and a four-channel digital sampling system, utilising flexible digital down conversion and filtering together with state-of-the-art onboard digital signal processing.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to the DGLR Int. Symposium "To Moon and Beyond", Bremen, Germany, 2005. Companion paper to arXiv:astro-ph/050921

Polarized Neutron Laue Diffraction on a Crystal Containing Dynamically Polarized Proton Spins

We report on a polarized-neutron Laue diffraction experiment on a single crystal of neodynium doped lanthanum magnesium nitrate hydrate containing polarized proton spins. By using dynamic nuclear polarization to polarize the proton spins, we demonstrate that the intensities of the Bragg peaks can be enhanced or diminished significantly, whilst the incoherent background, due to proton spin disorder, is reduced. It follows that the method offers unique possibilities to tune continuously the contrast of the Bragg reflections and thereby represents a new tool for increasing substantially the signal-to-noise ratio in neutron diffraction patterns of hydrogenous matter.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Activation of NF- B protein prevents the transition from juvenile ovary to testis and promotes ovarian development in Zebrafish

Testis differentiation in zebrafish involves juvenile ovary to testis transformation initiated by an apoptotic wave. The molecular regulation of this transformation process is not fully understood. NF-κB is activated at an early stage of development and has been shown to interact with steroidogenic factor-1 in mammals, leading to the suppression of anti-Müllerian hormone (Amh) gene expression. Because steroidogenic factor-1 and Amh are important for proper testis development, NF-κB-mediated induction of anti-apoptotic genes could, therefore, also play a role in zebrafish gonad differentiation. The aim of this study was to examine the potential role of NF-κB in zebrafish gonad differentiation. Exposure of juvenile zebrafish to heat-killed Escherichia coli activated the NF-κB pathways and resulted in an increased ratio of females from 30 to 85%. Microarray and quantitative real-time-PCR analysis of gonads showed elevated expression of NF-κB-regulated genes. To confirm the involvement of NF-κB-induced anti-apoptotic effects, zebrafish were treated with sodium deoxycholate, a known inducer of NF-κB or NF-κB activation inhibitor (NAI). Sodium deoxycholate treatment mimicked the effect of heat-killed bacteria and resulted in an increased proportion of females from 25 to 45%, whereas the inhibition of NF-κB using NAI resulted in a decrease in females from 45 to 20%. This study provides proof for an essential role of NF-κB in gonadal differentiation of zebrafish and represents an important step toward the complete understanding of the complicated process of sex differentiation in this species and possibly other cyprinid teleosts as well

The Distribution of Redshifts in New Samples of Quasi-stellar Objects

Two new samples of QSOs have been constructed from recent surveys to test the hypothesis that the redshift distribution of bright QSOs is periodic in $\log(1+z)$. The first of these comprises 57 different redshifts among all known close pairs or multiple QSOs, with image separations $\leq$ 10\arcsec, and the second consists of 39 QSOs selected through their X-ray emission and their proximity to bright comparatively nearby active galaxies. The redshift distributions of the samples are found to exhibit distinct peaks with a periodic separation of $\sim 0.089$ in $\log(1+z)$ identical to that claimed in earlier samples but now extended out to higher redshift peaks $z = 2.63, 3.45$ and 4.47, predicted by the formula but never seen before. The periodicity is also seen in a third sample, the 78 QSOs of the 3C and 3CR catalogues. It is present in these three datasets at an overall significance level $10^{-5}$ - $10^{-6}$, and appears not to be explicable by spectroscopic or similar selection effects. Possible interpretations are briefly discussed.Comment: submitted for publication in the Astronomical Journal, 15 figure